The six-week ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, drafted in January 2025 after 15 months of conflict is now facing strain. The core of the ceasefire was a series of exchanges between Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, along with humanitarian aid. However, Hamas’s notice on February 10 to indefinitely postpone the further release of hostages creates uncertainty about the outcome of the ceasefire.
The Gaza ceasefire was mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. The framework outlined a three-stage plan. First, there would be an initial six-week pause in fighting, with gradual prisoner and hostage swaps, when Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza. The second stage would mark Hamas’s release of all remaining hostages and the withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers. In the third and final stage, Hamas and Israel would both release the remains of deceased captives, Israel would terminate its blockade of the Gaza Strip, and Hamas would not rebuild its military.
The execution of the ceasefire has been inconsistent, with mutual distrust permeating the truce. Israeli officials fear that Hamas seeks to exploit negotiations to regroup militarily, and Hamas is concerned that Israel will resume their hostilities once hostages are freed. An example is, as discussed above, Hamas’s decision to delay its sixth hostage exchange. Hamas justifies such postponement by claiming Israel violated ceasefire terms. The stalled release of hostages has led mediators and foreign parties, including President Donald Trump, to engage with Israel and Hamas to resolve this crisis. President Trump has issued a direct ultimatum to Hamas, demanding the release of all Israeli hostages by 12:00 PM on Saturday, February 15. He warned that the failure to comply would result in the termination of the cease-fire argument, threatening, “All hell will break out, ” and concluding that, “We’ll see what happens.” If Hamas does not comply, he claims that the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be terminated and “all hell will break out”, further claiming that “we’ll see what happens.” President Trump already has a controversial proposal for the development of Gaza, as he plans to relocate Gazans and develop the territory under US control. His proposal draws criticism throughout the Arab world and Hamas, with many fearing unthinkable consequences.
The fragility of the ceasefire underscores the challenges of settling the hostilities between two conflicting parties. The initial progress may provide relief; however, the lack of progress puts the truce in an unstable state. Without the enforcement of the treaty from both sides, conflict could reignite. In the meantime, the world puts its hopes on the mediators who continue to work with both parties to find a resolution and restore confidence in the ceasefire.
Sources:
Cook, Steven. “Israel and Hamas Reach Cease-Fire, but Will the War End?” Council on Foreign Relations, 2025, www.cfr.org/expert-brief/israel-and-hamas-reach-cease-fire-will-war-end.
Ebrahim, Nadeen, and Dana Karni. “Hamas and Israel Trade Blame over Deal Violations. Will the Fragile Ceasefire and Hostage Agreement Hold?” CNN, 25 Jan. 2025, www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-fragile-hostage-release-gaza-intl-latam/index.html.
Jakes, Lara, et al. “Trump Issues Cease-Fire Ultimatum after Hamas Postpones Release of Israeli Hostages.” The New York Times, 10 Feb. 2025, www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/world/middleeast/hamas-hostages-israel-ceasefire.html.
Timmons, Heather, et al. “Israel-Hamas Live Updates: Future of Gaza Ceasefire Agreement in Doubt.” Reuters, 10 Feb. 2025, www.reuters.com/live/israel-hamas-live-updates-future-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-doubt-2025-02-10/.
Trew, Bel. “Gaza Ceasefire at Critical Point with Hopes for Long-Term Israeli-Hamas Peace Remote.” The Independent, 10 Feb. 2025, www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-israel-hamas-delay-hostages-b2695649.html.
Wikipedia Contributors. “2025 Gaza War Ceasefire.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 11 Feb. 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire.
