Of the many global issues threatening the trilateral relationship, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the ongoing trade war between the United States and China are the two most pressing events facing Japan, South Korea, and the United States in 2025. North Korea’s military power has surged during the Russian-Ukrainian war due to the massive benefits it receives from Russia in exchange for continued military support. As North Korea’s nuclear weaponry grows in quantity and quality, South Korea and Japan, two neighboring countries without nuclear weapons, are feeling heightened threats and tensions because they are well aware of North Korea’s increasing dominance. The United States experiences similar concerns regarding North Korea and Russia’s interdependency, especially North Korea’s advancing nuclear weaponry, for it poses significant consequences.
Indeed, North Korea’s involvement in the war not only challenges the United States’ ceaseless efforts to deter Russian attacks on Ukraine but may induce stronger relations between North Korea, Russia, and China as they share anti-Western sentiment. To safeguard their diplomatic connections, South Korea, Japan, and the USA must engage in frequent multi-domain military exercises and hold strategic government meetings to confirm goals and exchange critical information. One beneficial approach would be to foster strategic deterrence techniques to protect one another’s national security while avoiding upsetting or scaring China, North Korea, or Russia and preventing counterstrikes on their behalf.
Another key issue facing the three countries is the tariff war between China and the United States, specifically regarding semiconductors. What began as a one-sided American-driven tariff policy in 2018 under President Trump soon escalated into a complex, global trade dispute and networking dilemma involving South Korea and Japan. The United States has forced South Korea and Japan to join the semiconductor war by restricting China’s influence in the economic market. However, South Korea still thinks of China as an indispensable trading partner and remains less aggressive in the trade war to perpetuate favorable conditions with China. On the other hand, Japan appears more willing to adopt the United States’s strict approach to undermine China’s semiconductor businesses. Unfortunately, in recent months, the United States has lost its ability to rely entirely on South Korea and Japan to support its goals and efforts regarding China. Both South Korea and Japan are experiencing turbulent political atmospheres as South Korea deals with an arrested president while Shigeru Ishiba, a highly unpopular prime minister, attempts to stabilize the country.
That said, in the coming months and years, the trilateral relationship will encounter unprecedented challenges and threats requiring thorough, prudent, and collective efforts on behalf of the three countries. Indeed, government sectors and militaries are responsible for devising and executing strategic policies in collaboration. At the same time, civil society groups – newspapers, non-profit organizations, social media platforms, educational institutions, and private businesses – play a pivotal role in influencing public opinion. To maintain Japan, South Korea, and the United States’ trilateral partnership, many stakeholders must chip in and ensure effective cooperation, execution, and discussion.
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