(Editor’s Note: This article was written on October 27th, 2024. These predictions reflect the information available as of that date. To see the results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, go to this link.)
As of writing this, the 2024 presidential election will soon come to a close. The main candidates are Donald J. Trump of the Republican Party and Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party. This is an Op-Ed; it is entirely my opinion and will serve as somewhat of a time capsule. This article will be published after the election, and I am wondering how similar or different the results and my predictions will be.
Turning to the polling data as of October 25, 2024, the RCP shows a tie between the two candidates. While this may not seem like the end of the world for the Harris campaign, notice that just before election day in 2016, Hillary Clinton was polling at +5.5 points, and she lost even with +2.1 in the final polls. Biden was polling +8.1 at this time in the 2020 election and ended up winning with a +4.5 point count in the polls. This means that Harris is certainly in the hot seat, with hardly any cushion for her numbers. It also shows that in both past elections, the RCP pollsters underestimated Trump by an average of around 4-5 points.
Currently, Trump leads the poll averages of all 7 swing states. These states are critical to earning the 93 deciding electoral points in the race to 270. The RCP polls list Trump as leading the swing states with these averages:
Pennsylvania: +0.6 Trump
Nevada: +0.7 Trump
North Carolina: +0.8 Trump
Arizona: +2.2 Trump
Georgia: +1.5 Trump
Wisconsin: +0.2 Trump
Michigan: +0.2 Trump
Although all polls have inherent flaws, they remain useful for identifying broader political trends. Current polling indicates that there is a substantial likelihood of Republican victory in all 7 swing states of this election. Now it is time to discuss the election forecast. First, let us get the non-swing states out of the way.
For the Democrats: California, Oregon, Washington, State, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska Second District, Minnesota, Hawaii, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, District Of Columbia, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire and the Maine 1st District. Without accounting for swing states, the Democrat count would stand at 226.
For the Republicans: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska 1st and 3rd District, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and the Maine 2nd District. Not accounting for swing states, the Republican vote stands at 219.
The swing states are going to be critical to the election. These swing states are:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Georgia
Arizona
Leading in the swing state polls, Trump has an advantage in this election. Starting with the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), which have voted with each other in the past two elections, going Republican in 2016 and Democrat in 2020. This is mainly because they share very similar demographics, or White working-class voters (whom Trump polls favorably with), alongside significant populations of Black and Hispanic voters as well. Trump’s Vice President pick, J.D Vance famously comes from a working-class background and will likely be able to sway some voters to vote Republican. Both candidates have done a lot of campaigning here, but the advantage seems to favor the Republican party. Michigan is likely going to be the most left of the states because of urban centers like Detroit which tend to vote Democratic. Expect it to flip in either direction.
On the topic of the western swing states Arizona and Nevada, Arizona has been polling well for Trump. It is likely that since this border state deals with the crisis of border enforcement and illegal immigration, some counties have been flipped by Trump’s promise to further secure the border. Nevada is still (at the time of writing) at +0.7 points for Trump in the RCP. Like the midwestern states, the vote in Nevada will likely be close.
In the south, the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia have been polling favorably for Trump. For Georgia, Atlanta has been a Democratic stronghold crucial to deciding Georgia’s vote. Trump had polled +0.4 in Georgia for 2020. According to the Politico results for Georgia, Trump lost Georgia by 11,779 votes in 2020. The increase in polls to +1.5 points for Trump may be enough to flip the state for him. North Carolina has voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, even though this is the first time RCP had him with the advantage in the polls. For a “swing state” North Carolina sure looks like it is in the bag for the Republican party.
Ultimately, I believe that the race will close with a likely victory for Donald J Trump. For the electoral vote, here is my predicted matchup: 312 victory for the Republicans, 226 loss for the Democrats. I don’t think I can accurately predict the popular vote to a tee, so I haven’t included it. I believe that either candidate can take the popular vote, especially with such a tight polling average.
Editor’s Note: We would be remiss not to acknowledge that John Stone’s predictions, made on October 25th, 2024, aligned precisely with the final electoral college count. We congratulate John on his accurate predictions!
Sources:
YAPms (Electoral map)
2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling (Polls for 2016, 2020, and 2024 races alongside swing state polls)
Georgia Election Results 2020 | Live Map Updates | Voting by County & District (Georgia vote count 2020)
